Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

Measuring systemic risk with regime switching in tails

This paper motivates the importance of modeling nonlinearities in measuring systemic risk. I capitalize this motivation by generalizing the CoVaR approach proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016) to allow it switching between a high and a normal risk regime filtered from data.. Considering the U.S. large bank holding companies (BHCs), this paper shows that modeling regime changes in tails is capable of capturing both amplification and mean-reversion effects of an adverse shock to a bank's balance sheet on the banking system. Using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics with and without bootstrapping, I perform the significance test to identify systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), and the stochastic dominance test to rank the identified SIFIs. The stochastic dominance test raises the concern that the CoVaR measure underestimates systemic risk contributions for SIFIs but overestimates for non-SIFIs. Finally, applying the BHCs' characteristics and housing market price to forecast the regime-switching systemic risk out-of-sample, I obtain from 4- and 8-quarter-ahead horizons a desirable countercyclical, forward-looking measure of systemic risk.     

Accessing Tourists’ Unconscious Associations about International Destinations: Data Fuzzification of Reaction Times in the Implicit Association Test

Starting with the proposition that shorter reaction time implies stronger implicit preference, this study assesses destination-related top-of-mind awareness (TOMA) by examining respondent reaction time to specific destination icons. A total 87 college students were recruited to complete self-report surveys and computer-based implicit association tests (IAT). The results show that participants’ responses vary depending on the two measures (i.e., self-report surveys and IATs). Through a data fuzzification method, the study demonstrates that the IAT would enhance our understanding of tourist TOMA, particularly related to familiarity issues. The implications of the study pertain to destination marketing are fully discussed.     

Does Medical Equipment Expansion Lead to More Diagnostic Services? Evidence from China’s Sichuan Province

A major goal of China’s healthcare reform is to control the increasing healthcare spending, much of which can be attributed to the overuse of diagnostic tests and has been relatively less studied in the literature. This article analyzes the correlation between medical equipment expansion and the increase in diagnostic test expenditure in China, using Sichuan Province as an example. County-level data aggregated from hospitals’ annual reports in Sichuan Province from 2008 to 2012 were used. The results show a positive correlation between the expansion of medical equipment and the increase in diagnostic test expenditure. Our study provides implications on reforming China’s healthcare delivery system and medical equipment regulation policies.     

基于VAR模型的我国铜锌期货价格引导关系实证研究

铜、锌期货是大宗金属期货的重要品种，在期货投资市场上广受追捧。研究通过构建VAR模型，运用格兰杰因果检验，分析了近远月铜、锌期货价格之间相互引导关系，模型实证结论认为远月期铜、锌期货价格之间具有显著的相互引导关系，为期货市场上各类型投资者提供政策指引。     

Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) theory for 20 African countries using panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Omay (2014), through the sequential panel selection method of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009). While standard panel unit root tests fail to support the PPP, the empirical results from panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test do support the PPP. However, additional tests reveal that support in all 20 African countries is mostly due to stationarity of the real effective exchange rates of Ghana and Rwanda where the adjustment process towards equilibrium is nonlinear and asymmetric.     

信息化与工业化融合有界性的实证研究--基于我国31省市面板数据

以我国31个省（直辖市、自治区）1996～2012年的面板数据为基础，根据诺兰阶段模型、生产率悖论，提出“信息化与工业化”两化融合具有界限的假设。运用单位根检验及格兰杰因果检验对信息化与工业化融合进行实证研究，得出信息化对工业化具有促进作用，同时两化融合存在界限的结论。最后提出不同滞后期信息化与工业化平均水平比值的方法来测度界限，为政府决策提供依据。     

应用型本科大学数学课程考试模式研究

文章针对应用本科培养模式的特点,分析了大学数学课程教学及考试模式的不足,提出了应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试的改革设想。并且对应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试系统的架构和功能给出了框架式的设计,不但节约资源,而且可以较大程度上实现教考分离,将一考定结局的模式调整为分阶段分过程的考查。网络考试的模式不但可以更加真实合理地考核及评价学生,而且还能改变功利性教学的现状,客观地实现以考促学、以考促教的效果,更符合教育规律。从而印证了应用型本科大学数学课程网络考试模式改革的合理性。     

铁路客专现浇连续梁碗扣满堂支架的设计及检算

本文详细介绍成渝客运专线梁滩河特大桥预应力混凝土连续梁现浇施工中碗扣满堂支架的设计及检算,为类似工程施工提供参考。     

How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015

Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion, international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylized fact, this article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source markets, and by category) over the period 1981–2015. Finally, the empirical analysis allows us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and unsuitable public policies.